Bullish factors converged, and SHFE lead rose twice during the day [Futures Lead Brief Review]

SMM December 4:

The most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 17,140 yuan/mt today. It fluctuated upward in early trading, experienced a slight correction around midday, then resumed a unilateral upward trend, touching a high of 17,285 yuan/mt. It pulled back slightly toward the close, finding support at the 10-day moving average, and finally settled at 17,245 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt, or 0.35%. This marked a three-day winning streak.

Maintenance and production halts at numerous primary lead and secondary lead smelters across the country had not concluded by December, leading to limited lead ingot inventory in the market. Although the upward trend in lead prices was evident recently, offers for raw materials by secondary lead smelters were basically flat, with only minor increases from a small number of suppliers. Suppliers of waste lead-acid batteries in the market were reluctant to sell at low prices. Coupled with the conclusion of national subsidies in 2025, public sentiment for replacing batteries decreased, resulting in a reduction in the volume of lead-acid batteries retired from the market. This led to a decrease in the volume of raw materials arriving at secondary lead smelters. Meanwhile, downstream battery plants exhibited strong demand for lead ingots due to year-end inventory building expectations. The accumulation of these bullish factors is expected to support lead prices in maintaining a slight upward trend.

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